7. Supply estimate and projection for poultry meat in Pakistan by the year 2030 AD
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Abstract
Poultry sub-sector is an important and vibrant segment of Agriculture in Pakistan. Poultry meat supply in Pakistan by the year 2030 AD has been projected based on the time series data from 1980-81 to 2011-12. This study has been planned to estimate the poultry meat need in Pakistan in the next decade by 2030. Impact of important factors on poultry meat production have been studied by employing linear regression and polynomial price lag models. The poultry meat production has grown at high rate during last few years and actual prices have decreased, thus effect of poultry meat prices on its supply is found insignificant. Poultry population contributes positively and significantly to poultry meat production in the country. The coefficient of poultry feed prices has the negative sign but was statistically insignificant, indicating that poultry birds are good converters of feed into products of highly nutritive value. Availability of agricultural credit has not affected poultry meat production significantly in the country. Similarly, overtime insignificant change in poultry production technology has been observed. Though, in recent past increase in controlled house broiler farming has spurred the poultry meat production in the country. Poultry meat supply is projected to be 3289 and 3319 thousand tonnes under specifications of linear and polynomial price lag models, respectively. It is hoped that poultry meat production will grow at about 8.0 percent per annum by the year 2030, against past growth rate of 9.1 percent per annum during 1980-81 to 2011-12. Thus, policy interventions would be required in the long run to boost poultry meat production in the country.
Keywords: Pakistan; Poultry meat; Prices; Projections; Supply